Earlier this week, Russia's Vladimir Putin reportedly told Egypt's President Abdul Fattah Sisi that he would be willing to host direct talks between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Moscow.
Putin did speak to Netanyahu by phone Tuesday, and according to press reports, they did discuss the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
Having pushed Russia into the middle of Syria's civil war with great effect last September, is Vladimir Putin now making a serious bid to become a Middle East peacemaker too? If he's serious -- and this is far from certain -- Washington should let him try.
Given the moribund state of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and the long odds of success, Putin would almost certainly fail, tarnishing his vaunted image and likely angering Israelis and Palestinians in the process.
Here are some key questions:
Is Putin serious?
Clearly Putin is only testing the waters at this stage. Had he wanted to own his proposal for talks, Putin might have announced the offer publicly himself. By using al-Sisi -- someone he knows is close to the Israelis and also has leverage over the Palestinians --he assured himself a favorable hearing and a way out should the Israelis and Palestinians say no. Sisi has for months offered to host talks between the sides in Cairo -- an idea whose time has clearly not yet come.
If Putin wanted to take his idea a step further without risking failure, he could invite both Netanyahu and Abbas to Moscow again for separate consultations in Moscow to see whether there actually was a basis for getting them together.
What's in this for Putin?
Putin loves the big stage, particularly if the play includes an angle to counter Washington and make the Americans look bad. Traditionally, the peace process -- or what remains of it -- has been a US preserve. And Putin knows how much effort John Kerry has invested in this to little avail.
The pursuit of an Israeli-Palestinian peace is high-stakes, prestigious diplomacy and has been conducted most often over the years with the Russians excluded. But should Russia find a way to nibble around the edges or insert itself in the middle of the game, it would only reinforce the impression that Moscow is a key player and has exploited successfully the vacuum the Obama Administration has created through what its critics charge is an abdication of leadership. Besides whatever comes of the offer to host talks, Putin loves jerking Washington's diplomatic chain.
Would Abbas and Netanyahu agree?
Clearly neither Abbas nor Netanyahu is happy with Washington's mediation efforts. Netanyahu fears the administration will in its final months try to do something on the peace process he can't accept, such as push for a UN Security Council Resolution or pressure him in some way. And Abbas is frustrated because he believes the Americans haven't squeezed Netanyahu hard enough.
It's certainly possible that Netanyahu is already looking beyond President Obama to the next President and would see the Russian offer as a way to hedge his bets and get through the next several months -- just as he encouraged Sisi to host direct talks in Cairo. Anybody but Obama, Netanyahu might muse to himself.
Still, Netanyahu would have to think very hard -- however important Russia is in the context of Israel's stake in Syria and Lebanon -- about the consequences of a Russian centered peace process. Could he trust Russia, whose views traditionally on the issues in the negotiations (borders, Jerusalem and refugees) have been much closer to the Palestinian side than to Israel.
Trump encourages Putin, America's foe (Opinion)
And what would the impact be in the US and Israel, if Netanyahu agreed to a Russian-led process, particularly with Russia growing closer to Iran and when Netanyahu seems so close to signing a 10-year package of security assistance worth billions with the US.
As for Abbas, he may believe that the Russians would indeed take his side on some key issues. But having refused to agree to direct negotiations with the Israelis these many months, Abbas would not allow himself to cede that point for free. He would demand that Moscow provide assurances that Israel would make concessions on key issues. And why would Putin have any more success in that area than the Obama Administration after eight years?
Most likely, Putin's offer is pot stirring, an effort to create drama and news by demonstrating that Russia might be a peace mediator too. And it's certainly possible that some symbolic meeting -- devoid of substance -- could take place in Moscow.
But Putin's idea has failure written all over it. And if the Russian leader persists, Washington should stand back and let him try.
If there ever was a loser issue designed to suck huge amounts of thankless effort out of any would-be mediator without achieving results, it's the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
Not only is the issue not ready for prime time, it's bound to make those who take it on look weak and feckless and earn the anger and animosity of the Israelis and Palestinians to boot.
Putin knows all of this, of course, which is why more than likely he'll steer clear of any serious effort. But who knows. After Ukraine and Syria, maybe he feels like he's on a roll. Having spent 20-plus years trying to push this particular big rock up the hill, I wish him luck.
0 comments:
Post a Comment